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da gbg bet： Each week the team over at totalfootballanalysis.com previews our Fixture in Focus. This week Harshal Patel is in the hotseat to run the rule over Southampton vs Newcastle United.
This Saturday sees Southampton host Newcastle United, in what is probably already a crucial clash in both clubs’ bids to avoid relegation.
While Newcastle are rooted to the bottom of the table, without a win from nine games so far, Southampton are only four points ahead of them, with a solitary win this season.
The Saints are just a point above the relegation zone, and both clubs have been dismal in front of goal having scored just six goals apiece. Both Mark Hughes and Rafa Benitez have tried to rely on their defences to keep it tight and then nick a point (or three), but evidently, this strategy has not worked out.
Ahead of their meeting, we take a look at their approach to the season so far and why it needs to change if they are to have any hope of top flight survival.
Southampton
Southampton’s problem is one of finishing; they are creating the chances but failing to convert them. Only four teams have taken more shots than the Saints this season – Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs.
All of them are in the top five, while Southampton are down in 16th place. This points towards a lack of finishing ability, and the numbers bear this out; Southampton have a wretched conversion rate of 4.8%, with only Huddersfield doing worse than them so far.
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Even playing with two strikers has not helped in this regard; Charlie Austin has just two shots on target this season, while Shane Long has delivered his usual recipe of willing running and little else.
Danny Ings has scored thrice since arriving from Liverpool, which is half of Southampton’s total in the league; he desperately needs someone else to step up and share the goalscoring burden, while he too has been guilty of some extraordinary misses this season.
A lack of quality on the ball made evident by the pass Nathan Redmond chooses to make here – despite Ings running into space, he passes to Austin, who is marked.
Their wide players have not helped in this regard either; Nathan Redmond has one goal in 49 games, while Mohamed Elyounoussi has yet to register a goal or assist this season.
They have failed to suitably replace Dusan Tadic, and before him Sadio Mane, and are now bearing the cost. There is a case for Hughes to play with a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1, but Stuart Armstrong is the only true attacking midfielder in the squad and he has been woeful since his arrival in the summer.
The lack of a number 10 means that nobody moves into the space that has opened up; Redmond’s only passing option is to Cedric Soares out wide.
Defensively, the Saints seem solid enough, but that has not stopped them from conceding 14 goals already.
They rank 3rd for tackles, 6th for clearances, 6th for interceptions and 5th for blocks this season, which tells you that they are usually on the back foot for most of the game, and are not good at preventing opposing teams from taking shots.
They also tend to drop deep, which explains their ranking for clearances, but this conservatism has not helped Hughes’ side so far, and he needs to let them off the leash if Southampton are to have any chance of staying up this season.
Newcastle United
The problems at Newcastle are well-documented; a disinterested owner who has steadily eroded all trust and is content with mediocrity as long as it keeps the Premier League cash coming in, while an iconic stadium slowly decays and a mutinous fanbase stays loyal only because of the manager.
Yet, despite the bad hand that Benitez has been dealt, he takes a fair share of the blame for the mess Newcastle find themselves in.
While a defensive approach against the top-six sides is understandable, the Magpies’ failure to beat the likes of Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Brighton is a cause for concern. Newcastle have scored just one goal against a side in the bottom half of the table since the end of March; that is an appalling statistic that perfectly captures why they are propping up the league at the moment.
There is a huge amount of space on the right wing, which has not been utilised by Newcastle, and despite having Paul Dummett available for a switch in play on the left, Mo Diame chooses to shoot.
There is a distinct lack of pace throughout the side, with only Kenedy providing a direct threat. But the Brazilian is infuriatingly inconsistent, with a lack of end product which stymies his efforts in the final third. Jonjo Shelvey has had a good season dictating play from the middle of the park, but the lack of any creative threat between the lines means that he often ends up passing sideways and backwards.
A similar issue to that faced by Southampton; nobody moves into the space between the lines, leaving Shelvey with limited passing options.
While Benitez has made Newcastle into a well-drilled side defensively, the sheer amount of chances they concede every game makes it inevitable that they will eventually concede. It is time for the Spaniard to reconsider his approach, especially in games against the bottom sides, otherwise Newcastle could soon be condemned back to the Championship.
Newcastle limit space between the lines well, staying compact and organised and denying Manchester United opportunities to play through them.
Conclusion
This is a game between two sides in very similar situations; a lack of creativity and quality along with a misguided emphasis on defensive play, which has caused them both to be embroiled in a relegation battle.
Both Hughes and Benitez can do better with the squads at their disposal, and Saturday is the perfect opportunity for them to try and take a game by the scruff of the neck and attack. That said, expect a tedious game of cat-and-mouse, with one goal probably enough to win the tie.
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